A recent survey conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong, an associate professor of statistics at Kumasi Technical University, has projected that the 2024 presidential election could be decided in the first round.
The findings indicate that Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), is leading the race with approximately 49.1% of the total votes.
His closest challenger, former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is expected to secure about 45.8% of the votes, according to the study.
The survey also places Nana Kwame Bediako, leader of the New Force Movement, in third position with 2.2%, while Alan Kyerematen, leader of the Movement for Change, is projected to garner 1.2% of the vote.
The report stated:
As of 16 November 2024 (4 weeks to elections), NPP's Dr Mahamudu Bawumia was in a 49.1% lead, NDC's Mr John Mahama coming next with 45.8%, followed by Nana Kwame Bediako with 2.2%, and Mr John Allan Kyeremateng with 1.2%.
It further noted:
All other candidates put together obtained 1.7% of the votes. It is clear from this report that elections in 2024 can be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory.
The survey also provided a regional breakdown of voting patterns, predicting that the NPP would win seven out of the country’s 16 regions, while the NDC would dominate in nine regions.
Excerpts from the report detailed:
Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions are the leading regions powering the NPP's 49.1% lead. Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savanna, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions are the leading regions powering the NDC's 45.8%.
Despite this projection, several other surveys have predicted a victory for John Dramani Mahama in the 2024 presidential election. These findings highlight the competitive nature of the upcoming election, with varying data pointing to potential outcomes for the two major candidates.
The data underscores a closely contested election, with the possibility of a first-round victory hinging on the performance of the two leading political parties.