Presidential Candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), John Dramani Mahama, is predicted to be elected as Ghana’s president in the 2024 elections. This is the forecast of research firm Global Info Analytics, with barely eight days to the December 7 polls.
The latest poll, released on Friday, 29th November 2024, projects Mahama to win the presidential election with 52.2% of the votes. He is closely followed by the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who is expected to secure 41.4%.
In third and fourth places are independent presidential candidates Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force Movement, with 3.0%, and Alan Kojo Kyerematen of the Movement for Change, with 2.5%, while eight other presidential candidates are expected to collectively secure 0.9% of the votes.
Global Info Analytics also predicts that the NDC is leading the race to form the majority caucus in the 9th Parliament after the December 7 elections.
The report stated:
For the parliamentary election, the NDC currently leads and is likely to win circa 150 seats. The NPP is likely to win 99 seats, 1 seat is likely to be won by an independent candidate, and 29 seats are in a toss-up state (too close to call).
The poll also provides a regional breakdown:
John Dramani Mahama is predicted to win Greater Accra, Central, Western, Volta, Western North, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper West, Upper East, and Oti regions. Dr Mahamudu Bawumia is predicted to win the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, Bono, and North East regions.
This poll shows a slight increase in Mahama’s expected margin of victory compared to the 51.9% predicted by Global Info Analytics in its National Phone Tracking poll released on 18th November 2024.
Meanwhile, opposing polls have presented different outcomes. A recent survey conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong, an associate professor of statistics at Kumasi Technical University, projects a closer race, suggesting that the election could be decided in the first round. According to his findings, Dr Bawumia is leading with approximately 49.1%, while Mahama is expected to secure about 45.8%.
Read the full report below: