Jonathan Martin and Astead W. Herndon

“The road to the White House starts in South Carolina,” Mayor Steve Benjamin of Columbia happily decreed Monday, as two likely candidates, waiting their chance to speak, sat behind him in silent testimony.

But Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Cory Booker, D-N.J., are hardly the only Democratic presidential hopefuls with South Carolina on their mind — or even the only two who will be in the state this week.

The primary here may still be 405 days away and only fourth on the calendar of early-nominating states, behind Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. But at a time when President Donald Trump has stoked racial divisions and black voters have become an increasingly crucial Democratic constituency, South Carolina is already looming larger at the outset of this race than in any recent Democratic nominating contest.

“It’s hard to construct a scenario where South Carolina is not the gateway to the nomination,” said David Plouffe, former President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, describing it as a springboard into the most delegate-rich day of the primary and a proving ground for who can appeal to black voters. “If you don’t have the capacity to perform well in South Carolina, it likely means you’re not capable of performing well later in the primary.”

This state is poised to play an outsized role in 2020 because of a confluence of demography and timing. South Carolina will be the first contest in which a majority of those casting ballots will be African-American. In 2016, black voters made up roughly 60 percent of the South Carolina Democratic primary vote. (In the general election, they usually make up less than a quarter of the vote in a state that is reliably Republican.)

The winner here will enter the March 3 Super Tuesday contests with a burst of momentum. South Carolina will mark the final clash before California, Texas and an array of similarly diverse states, comprising over 30 percent of the race’s total delegates, vote just three days later.

While some of the nine Super Tuesday states allow early balloting, the Democrats who wait to vote on primary day itself will be heavily influenced by the South Carolina results.

“People ask me if I’m concerned California has moved up, and I say: No, it just makes South Carolina more important, because all that people are going to be talking about on Saturday night, Sunday and Monday is who won South Carolina,” said Jaime Harrison, a former state chairman here, referring to California’s decision to move its primary from June to March.

The compressed schedule — there is exactly one month between the Iowa caucuses and Super Tuesday — and the multiracial nature of Nevada and South Carolina may also tempt some candidates not to focus exclusively on Iowa and New Hampshire in the weeks leading up to those first two, heavily white states.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody didn’t just decide to just plant a flag in South Carolina and hope that’ll give them the springboard into the next states,” said Leah Daughtry, a longtime Democratic strategist.

The most consequential question here, at least at the beginning of the campaign, is whether former Vice President Joe Biden will run. He has a stronger network of supporters in South Carolina than in any of the other kickoff states. And Rep. Jim Clyburn, the third-ranking House Democrat and the most influential Democrat in the state, said the former vice president would be the man to beat.

“If Biden gets in the race, everybody else would be running for second place,” said Clyburn, who is one of the nation’s most powerful African-American politicians.

Other liberals, especially young ones, are far more skeptical of Biden’s prospects. But what is undeniable is that if he does not enter the race, it will leave endorsements and support from a number of prominent Democrats up for grabs.

“He’s got to give folks a chance who would be making a second decision if he’s not going to do it,” said state Sen. Gerald Malloy, a Biden supporter who said it “would be advisable” for him to make his intentions known soon.

The last two contested Democratic primaries illustrate how important South Carolina has become since it was designated an early-nominating state.

Obama’s nomination was forged here 11 years ago this month when black voters veered from their initial support for Hillary Clinton and rallied to his history-making candidacy. And in 2016, Clinton sowed the seeds of her own nomination by overwhelming Sanders in South Carolina thanks to many of those same African-Americans, a pattern that would be replicated throughout the South that year.

Now, even before some of them begin their campaigns, a handful of the most formidable would-be presidential candidates are signaling that they understand how pivotal this state and its African-American electorate will be in 2020.

Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., who announced her candidacy Monday, is making South Carolina her first early-state destination with a trip to Columbia on Friday to address a fundraiser for an African-American sorority. After making racial justice central in her campaign launch this month, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., will make her initial foray as a candidate to the state Wednesday.

Sanders and Booker, neither of whom has formally declared he is running, showed up in unusually chilly weather for the commemoration of Martin Luther King’s Birthday. Booker had some private meetings while in Columbia and Sanders went to two other cities in the state.

Biden has repeatedly visited for vacations and to nurture his relationships, most recently campaigning for a handful of Democrats here in October.

And former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas has two of his most vocal “Draft Beto” operatives here, as well as a budding text message friendship with Rep. Joe Cunningham, the freshman lawmaker from Charleston who sprang one of the biggest upsets of 2018.

That’s not to mention Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who last week revealed he would test out a potential campaign with a handful of trips, including to South Carolina, and spent time calling prominent black officials in the state, including Benjamin and former state Rep. Bakari Sellers.

“I think we’re suffering from an embarrassment of riches right now,” said Benjamin, who plans to make an endorsement once he sees more clarity in the race. “We have to run this gantlet and not have too many self-inflicted wounds.”

But there is little doubt who, at the start of the race, is being talked about the most in South Carolina.

“From African-Americans, I’ve only heard three names being discussed: that’s Booker, Harris and Biden,” said Clyburn. (Not only is Clyburn being wooed by the candidates, but his daughter Jennifer, who teaches at the University of South Carolina, has also received calls from Harris and Booker.)

The question Biden faces is whether his support would extend beyond the political establishment with whom he has an enduring bond and to rank-and-file voters.

Jarrod Loadholt, a Democratic strategist, said Harris and Booker would garner the “first look” from black voters and dismissed the “traditional Democratic thought” that the former vice president had any hold on African-Americans.

“Black people loved Obama, not Biden,” Loadholt said, likening Biden to a side dish. “Biden was the fries and you can live without the fries. He was never the main event.”

Even before she touches down to speak to her fellow Alpha Kappa Alphas, there is great anticipation about Harris, particularly among black women, who are the most dependable Democratic voters in the state.

“I’m interested in hearing from Kamala Harris,” said Alyssa Robillard, a University of South Carolina professor who praised Harris for being “able to get to the heart of an issue in a way that demands a response.”

Todd Rutherford, a member of the state Legislature, recalled that when the California senator appeared in the state last year there was “an electricity” in the air and “after she got done, everybody in room wanted to touch her.”

But Rutherford hastened to add that black voters in the state will not automatically line up with an African-American candidate at a moment when defeating the president is a paramount concern for many Democrats.

“We’ve had our first black president,” he said. “If they don’t think you can win against Donald Trump, it doesn’t matter if you’re black, purple or green.”

South Carolina is famously seen from the outside as a rough-and-tumble and often transactional political state — and that perception is not entirely unwarranted. Even though it is still unclear who exactly will be in the field, Democrats are already eagerly jockeying for position.

Boyd Brown, a former state lawmaker who is now helping lead the “Draft Beto” effort, said he is making the case to well-connected black Democrats that they would play a more influential role with O’Rourke than with one of the African-American candidates.

“You’re going to be, what, 12th on the totem pole,” said Brown. “If you want to be on the top of the totem pole, come over here.”

At least at the moment, few black leaders or voters have expressed much curiosity about O’Rourke, who has not indicated if he is running.

There is also little initial interest among black voters in Warren, although she has used her campaign announcement and developing stump speech to focus explicitly on the challenges confronting people of color.

“She is extremely aware of the changing face of the Democratic Party,” said Harrison, noting that in a recent telephone conversation, he told Warren that she cannot simply “camp out” in New Hampshire and Iowa. Her response?

“You’re exactly right,” Harrison recalled Warren telling him.

This article originally appeared in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/us/politics/south-carolina-democrats-president.html" id="26e02d04-8967-3a2f-ac7d-bbd38e7ecbe8">The New York Times</a>.

For Democrats, South Carolina Already Looms Large for the 2020 Race

COLUMBIA, S.C. — The rally in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. on the steps of South Carolina’s Capitol was solemn, with speaker after speaker invoking his courage and vision. But this city’s mayor could not help but turn his eye from the past to the future for just a moment.

Biden has repeatedly visited for vacations and to nurture his relationships, most recently addressing an NAACP banquet in Charleston last fall.

<h1>COLUMBIA, S.C. — The rally in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. on the steps of South Carolina’s Capitol was solemn, with speaker after speaker invoking his courage and vision. But this city’s mayor could not help but turn his eye from the past to the future for just a moment.</h1>

This article originally appeared in <a id="2d8ef06a-194f-4fda-80c4-b6c565abcf05" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/us/politics/south-carolina-democrats-president.html">The New York Times</a>.

“The road to the White House starts in South Carolina,” Mayor Steve Benjamin of Columbia happily decreed Monday, as two likely candidates, waiting their chance to speak, sat behind him in silent testimony.

For Democrats, South Carolina already looms large for the 2020 race

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Jonathan Martin and Astead W. Herndon

Articles written by the author

For Democrats, South Carolina Already Looms Large for the 2020 Race

For Democrats, South Carolina Already Looms Large for the 2020 Race

For Democrats, South Carolina already looms large for the 2020 race