Adam Bienkov

LONDON — Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party is bracing itself for a major backlash from Labour voters if it backs a second Brexit referendum, senior aides to the Labour leader have told Business Insider.

The Labour leadership <a id="b88eccc9-454d-32d1-aac6-101674ece5ad" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/02/behind-closed-doors-labour-second-referendum-shadow-cabinet-strategy"> is under growing pressure </a> from senior party figures and the membership to back a so-called People's Vote if Theresa May's Brexit deal is defeated in the House of Commons next week.

Corbyn is committed to the possibility of campaigning for another referendum if all other options — including its first preference of an early general election — fail to win enough parliamentary support.

The Labour for a People's Vote campaign told BI this week that they believe doing so would gift the party an additional 1.5 million votes and 70 seats at the next election.

However, some of those close to Corbyn are deeply sceptical about such predictions and fear that committing to a new vote would in reality trigger a wave of anger towards the Labour party and its leader, jeapordising its chances of winning the next general election.

"We would be badly hit," one adviser to Corbyn told BI. "Right now the political narrative is directed towards 'why aren't we backing a Peoples Vote? We need these two million votes' or whatever.

"But what happens if we back a People's Vote and then we get resignations from the shadow cabinet?"

"What happens if you get loads of Labour MPs in the North of England saying this is a betrayal of the working classes who are being told to vote again until they give the right answer?

"That would totally change the game and we would be up against this betrayal narrative."

Sources close to Corbyn told BI that the party had conducted private polling and focus groups in marginal seats which suggested there was no real appetite for a second vote.

"We've got polls showing that there are broadly 70% of the population who are bored by Brexit and just want politicians to get on with it. Theresa May has clearly got those same polls because she is saying the same thing," the aide said.

We've got polls showing that there are broadly 70% of the population who are bored by Brexit and just want politicians to get on with it.

The party has been conducting polling and focus groups of voters in marginal seats in the Midlands about which way the party should go.

"We've done some private focus groups of soft Remain and soft Leave voters in the Midlands where there are a lot of marginal seats," one aide told BI.

"And while Leave voters are all against a second referendum, Remain voters are also really sceptical as well. Those voters think it would be a cynical move, because people have already voted on this and they think 'well why hasn't this already been sorted out?"

Corbyn's allies believe the issue risks preventing Corbyn from reaching Number 10.

"Here we are with our best ever chance of electing a socialist prime minister and we're being dragged into something that will make it harder to achieve that," one ally of Corbyn told BI.

Here we are with our best ever chance of electing a socialist prime minister and we're being dragged into something that will make it harder to achieve that.

The Labour Leave campaign, which represents the party's small number of MPs who are enthusiastic supporters of Brexit, held a briefing this week warning that the party risked being "decimated" if it backs a second referendum.

"If Labour goes down the route of supporting another referendum, we will cease to be able to call ourselves the Labour Party, because the working class in this country do not support continued membership of the EU," Brendan Chilton, Labour councillor and supporter of Labour Leave, said on Thursday.

"We'll become the party of capital. We'll probably be decimated in our heartland seats. We have seats in the Midlands and the North with very slim majorities — they'd go.

"It would be a death sentence to the Labour Party outside of London and metropolitan areas."

<h1> Labour could drop opposition to a revised May Brexit deal </h1>

This is despite senior Labour figures exerting pressure on Corbyn to back another referendum.

Watson, the party's deputy leader, has recently told leaders of other opposition parties that he expects Corbyn to eventually support a People's Vote, multiple sources familiar with those conversations have told BI.

However, there is a belief among some figures close to Corbyn that with parliamentary stalemate on the Brexit question likely, the party may ultimately have little choice but to back another referendum.

"We are not going to commit to a second referendum overnight. That is not going to happen," one aide said.

"But if there is a genuine gridlock then that might be the only way out. If there's no election and no majority for anything else then that may be where we end up."

Layla Moran Chuka Umunna Caroline Lucas People's Vote

The campaign for a People's Vote has been boosted in recent weeks by the resignations of two prominent Conservative ministers who resigned while backing calls for a new poll.

The resignations, with more rumoured to take place in the coming days, have led some to believe that a People's Vote could eventually win a majority in parliament.

However, as things stand this looks difficult, with those around Corbyn believing that the majority of Labour MPs would ultimately reject a new vote.

"In the political class we pay too much attention to what people are saying on Twitter and there's a sort of view in the media, particularly in the Guardian and the Observer, that all Labour MPs want a Peoples Vote and actually it's only about 30 or 40 of them that do and the rest don't," one aide to Corbyn told BI.

"Most Labour MPs — and its not a left-right, pro-Corbyn or anti-Corbyn thing — in Leave constituencies, which is most of our MPs, say just get on with it. There has been no change of opinion."

I could see a scenario where May comes back with a slightly softer deal and we say 'well that is the best we can do'.

There are still some in Corbyn's office who hope that the prime minister could opt for another snap general election if there is no way through Parliament for her controversial Withdrawal Agreement.

"There's quite a lot of intelligence suggesting that the Tories are doing a lot of election preparation on the ground," one Labour aide told BI. "It's impossible to know for sure, but we are planning for a snap election."

However, most Conservative MPs would likely vote against an early election, which betting markets suggest Labour would be favourites to win. This may mean that Labour ultimately has little choice but to abstain and allow some form of deal to go through Parliament, in order to avoid a chaotic no deal Brexit.

There is also a fear among Remain campaigners that Labour may ultimately decide to back a revised Brexit deal, such as one that committed to Labour's aim of forming a new customs union with the EU. Corbyn's allies accept this is possible.

"I could see a scenario where May comes back with a slightly softer deal and we say 'well that is the best we can do. That nearly meets our objectives' and then we will try to renegotiate in office," one aide told BI.

"I can see a scenario where that happens."

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DON'T MISS: The Lib Dems are preparing for a snap general election if May's Brexit deal falls

Jeremy Corbyn fears a Brexit 'betrayal' backlash if he backs a People's Vote

Boris Johnson has been forced to apologise to the House of Commons after failing to report his full earnings to the House authorities on nine occasions.

The former Foreign Secretary repeatedly failed to register his earnings within the time period required under parliamentary rules, the Commissioner for Standards <a id="606cb9e6-05e1-333d-abf4-e42e5548b3dc" href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmstandards/1797/179704.htm#_idTextAnchor004"> found. </a>

"The nine late registrations made by the Member at the time I began my inquiry had a total value of £52,722.80 which represents almost seventy per cent of a Member’s salary," the Commissioner said in a statement.

They added that the breach of the rules did not appear to be inadvertent.

"The number of late registrations suggested a lack of attention to the House’s requirements, rather than inadvertent error. In light of that, this matter could not be concluded by way of the rectification procedure," they said.

They added: "Although Mr Johnson has told me that the late registrations were 'inadvertent', the fact that the late registrations had happened on four separate occasions and involved nine payments, suggests a lack of attention to, or regard for, the House’s requirements rather than oversight or inadvertent error."

Johnson told MPs on Thursday that he accepted that he had broken the rules.

"You will be aware that the Committee on Standards published a report on nine payments, mainly unexpected foreign royalties I am very sorry to say were recorded late on the register of members interests," Johnson told the Commons.

"I fully accept that the delay was a breach of the House's rules and although I am grateful to the committee recognising that there was no intention to mislead the House and I have been completely transparent I therefore offer the house a full and unreserved apology."

The revelation is highly embarrassing for Johnson as allies prepare for him to challenge May should there be a vote of no confidence in her leadership in the coming months.

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Boris Johnson ordered to apologise to Parliament for failing to declare earnings

LONDON — Theresa May will offer MPs a vote on whether to trigger the so-called Brexit backstop, as she struggles to avoid a humiliating parliamentary defeat next Tuesday.

The prime minister said that Parliament could be given a choice whether to trigger a backstop or extend the Brexit transition period, if no deal on the UK's future relationship with the EU is found by the end of 2020.

Under the terms of the deal May has agreed in principle with the EU, the UK will be forced to remain in a customs union with EU if a deal is not reached by that point, while Northern Ireland will stay in parts of the single market.

The backstop is unpopular both among Conservative Brexiteers who believe it could keep the Britain indefinitely tied to the EU and Democratic Unionist Party MPs propping up May's government who say it is a threat to Nothern Ireland's status in the UK.

However, the prime minister said on Thursday that parliament could choose to avoid this scenario by instructing the government to extend the transition period instead.

"The backstop is not automatic. I'm looking at the role of Parliament in that choice," she told the Today programme.

She added that there were "pros and cons" to either option, saying that the backstop would not involve paying any more funds to the EU, whereas extending the transition would require an additional fee, plus accepting the continuation of freedom of movement with the EU.

The offer was immediately dismissed by Conservative Brexiteers.

One source in the anti-EU European Research Group of Conservative backbenchers, told Business Insider that May's offer of a vote was "ludicrous."

"The problem that needs fixing doesn’t need fixing here, it needs fixing in Brussels. Indeed the whole problem is that the problem can only be fixed in Brussels," the source said.

They added: "Saying 'Let me solve the problems in an international treaty with Westminster procedural flim flam' is not very convincing. Least of all with a bunch of Westminster proceduralists."

<h1> DUP threatens to bring down the government </h1>

May made the offer as Conservative whips fought to stave off what could be a defeat of historic proportions next week.

The prime minister has repeatedly fielded questions from concerned Conservative backbenchers both in private and in the Commons. However, all the signs are that opposition to her deal with the EU is refusing to budge.

Last night Conservative rebels met to discuss what to do should May's deal be defeated next week. Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who chairs the ERG, told the group that the DUP had told him they would withdraw their support from May's government if the deal went through, but would retain it if it is defeated.

The meeting was also joined by chief Conservative whip Julian Smith. One ERG source told Business Insider that Smith had achieved "no traction" with the group.

"He was politely received with no shouting in either direction, but there was equally no traction," the source said.

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Theresa May offers MPs a vote on the Brexit backstop in last ditch bid to save her deal

LONDON — Theresa May's government has been found in contempt of parliament after it refused to comply with a motion passed by MPs demanding that it release the full official legal advice on the prime minister's Brexit deal.

MPs voted by 311 to 293 to find ministers in contempt. It is the first time any UK government has been found in contempt by its MPs in parliamentary history.

The motion, passed Tuesday evening, did not name any individual minister.

However, if May's government continues to refuse to comply with the demands to release the legal advice in full then the Attorney General or other ministers could face suspension from Parliament.

It is a long-standing constitutional convention in the UK that Parliament is sovereign and the executive must be subject to its will. However, the government had argued that a separate convention against revealing confidential legal advice supplied to ministers had precedence.

MPs today rejected that position, as well as a separate motion to have the matter decided by a committee of MPs at a later date. The latter amendment was narrowly rejected by 311 votes to 307.

The decision, which was backed by a nunber of Conservative MPs, spells trouble for May's government as it approaches the crucial vote on the prime minister's Brexit deal due to take place next Tuesday.

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Theresa May's government has been found in contempt of Parliament

LONDON — Brexit will inevitably leave Britain worse off than had it remained in the EU, official forecasts released by the UK government suggest.

The Chancellor Philip Hammond has previously <a id="7beac0d3-1872-311b-a092-27b178792b59" href="https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/philip-hammond-brexit-the-british-people-did-not-vote-to-become-poorer-or-less-secure-1-8605315"> repeatedly insisted </a> that "when the British people voted [in the EU referendum] they did not vote to become poorer."

However, his government today released <a id="0e1ccc93-c505-31c6-abbd-135c775c25d1" href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759762/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf"> official assessments </a> showing that he UK economy will be hit under all likely Brexit outcomes.

<ul><li> May's deal would cut UK GDP by up to 3.9% over 15 years, according to official government analysis. </li><li> A no deal Brexit could cut UK GDP by up to 9.3% </li><li> A Canada-style free trade deal would leave GDP up to 6.7% lower than if Britain had remained. </li><li> A Norway-style soft Brexit would not have a negative impact on the economy. </li></ul>

The real-terms impact of May's Brexit deal could be larger than the analysis suggests, as it assumes the UK would roll over all existing EU trade deals with third countries plus successfully strike new free trade deals with <a id="f3bd8806-b547-305a-aceb-f497342c92c6" href="https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1067760698174914560"> at least 17 other countries. </a>

The analysis also shows that any economic benefit from Britain being able to strike these new trade deals would be massively outweighed by the economic impact of increasing trade barriers.

Speaking on the Today programme, Hammond said there would inevitably be a cost to any form of Brexit.

"Purely from an economic point of view there will be a cost to leaving the European Union," Hammond said.

"If you look at this purely from an economic point of view there will be a cost to leaving the European Union because there will be impediments to our trade."

However, he added that there were potential "political" benefits to Brexit, such as being able to sign independent trade deals and have an independent fishing policy.

The analysis, released on Wednesday morning, showed that leaving the EU without a deal would cost the British economy more than £150 billion over 15 years.

By contrast, Hammond said that May's deal would only leave the economy "very slightly smaller" than if Britain had remained in the EU.

The Chancellor also suggested that the government could be forced to change course and back an alternative form of Brexit, including a Norway-style Brexit in which Britain remains in the single market, if May's deal is defeated.

"If that is rejected then we will have to review the options," he said.

"We will have to look at the parliamentary arithmetic and see what is the best way to proceed."

Hammond said remaining in the Single Market would leave Britain at an "economic advantage."

"If you look purely at the economics, then remaining in the Single Market would give us an economic advantage yes," Hammond said.

Business groups said the figures showed the dangers of leaving the EU without a deal.

"These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy," CBI Chief Economist Rain Newton-Smith said.

"This is about real people’s lives and jobs in the years ahead and it's clear to business that while the Government’s deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future."

However, hardline Brexiteers in Hammond's Conservative party accused the Treasury of seeking to undermine Brexit.

"The reputation of government economics is in the gutter. That must change. It’s time for the Chancellor to publish all his assumptions and full model documentation so we can begin the process of recovery," former Brexit minister Steve Baker said.

“We’ve all had about enough of Project Fear," former International Development Secretary Priti Patel said.

"We were told during the referendum campaign that we’d each lose £4,300 and that there would be a recession and higher unemployment. And yet we’ve seen record wage growth and record employment levels.

"If ministers spent time preparing for a no deal scenario, rather than dreaming up silly scare stories, we could all make a success of our post-Brexit future."

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The UK government admits Brexit will inevitably leave Britain poorer

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