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Nigeria’s Super Eagles have a mountain to climb in what seems like an impossible mission to make it to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Their chances grew slimmer after a last-gasp equaliser from Chirewa Tawanda salvaged a point for Zimbabwe. Eric Chelle’s men missed out three important points, settling for a single after that stoppage time goal struck a dagger into the hearts of Nigerians.
Having accumulated only seven points in six matches, the Super Eagles sit in fourth position, one point behind Benin and Rwanda, and six less than first-placed South Africa.
With four more qualifying games to play, Nigerians must pray these four teams, especially South Africa, slip up in at least two matches.
However, the gap could be reduced to three if Bafana Bafana are sanctioned for fielding an ineligible player in their 2-0 win over Lesotho.
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Bafana Bafana midfielder Teboho Mokoena should have been serving a one-match suspension after picking up yellow cards in earlier matches against Benin and Zimbabwe.
However, the 28-year-old played in their victory over the Crocodiles, prompting Lesotho to file a formal complaint with FIFA.
This, the Lesotho national team has taken up with their football association’s secretary general quoted by the BBC as saying:
We are hoping for them to respect their own regulations and act appropriately. Even if they just caution South Africa, it will be okay. If they give us the points, so be it. [It would be] the cherry on top.
Should South Africa be penalized with a points deduction, Lesotho could be awarded a 3-0 technical victory, moving them into second place, just one point behind South Africa.
This would also offer a significant boost to Nigeria's World Cup hopes, as the Super Eagles, currently six points adrift of the top spot, would gain ground with four fixtures remaining after their 1-1 draw with Zimbabwe. They will then be only three points beneath the Bafana Bafana.
However, three points are still significant, and South Africa can still hold on to that advantage.
So, how can Nigeria still qualify for the global Mundial if (and a big if indeed) South Africa are sanctioned?
Permutations and likely outcomes that would favour Nigeria
Three points will separate Group C leaders South Africa and fifth-placed Nigeria because Lesotho, who are currently on six points, will be awarded three points which will see them climb to second on nine points.
Here’s the twist, the Super Eagles still have to take on the Bafana Bafana on matchday eight. But before that, they must win against Rwanda and pray Lesotho hold South Africa to a draw on home turf while Zimbabwe give Benin a run for their money.
Then they must beat South Africa to jump to 13 points. If that happens and the other two Group C games end in stalemates, Nigeria will automatically be group leaders before the final two games.
Now, their destiny will be in their hands sitting atop the group with at least a two-point advantage.
Victory away to Lesotho will set up an interesting clash home clash against Benin. And with the home crowd surely coming out in their numbers to cheer the Super Eagles on to soar high, that automatic World Cup qualification spot should be a done deal.
Too many prayers. But that’s the only way they can mathematically join the world in North America.
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In case they slip in the process and end up as Group C runners-up, a play-off is available but that is still a long shot.