'Things will get worse' - Dr Kwesi Aning

Director of the Faculty of Academic Affairs and Research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping and Training Centre, Dr Emmanuel Kwesi Aning says the latest string of attacks across the world shows that no country can be fully prepared to combat a terror attack.

In a frank analysis, he tells pulse.com.gh "any terrorists group that wants to attack a particular country will always be able to do it, particularly with respect to free societies where people are not unduly checked and scrutinized as they go about their business.”

Ghana was doing what it could to prevent a terror attack, with the police and military coordinating, but being an open society where people can travel freely, “we are at risk just like any other country is at risk.”

Since November last year, Mali, Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire have all been targeted by Al-Qaeda or affiliates of the terror group.

Those attacks reflected the struggle between Al-Qaeda and Islamic State.

“Islamic State is making a lot of noise about how daring it is in its ability to strike when it wants, Al-Qaeda has only responded by striking former French colonies where there is a French presence.

"In all three countries there was a French presence, but my personal analysis is, it's going to get worse.

“These three attacks were carried out by Al-Qaeda I think as Islamic State is driven out of Syria and Iraq and they come to Libya they will begin to come down south and will be looking for more spectacular attacks,” he told pulse.com.gh

“This is far from the end of what we are seeing...as the struggle between the two groups deepens and worsens, certainly Ghana will be at risk.”

Ghana could be a target due to its involvement in international peacekeeping, its economy doing “relatively well” and its democracy deepening.

“The propaganda value of attacking any critical infrastructure in Ghana - even if we were not to lose lives - just the fact that such an attack has been successful itself will dent Ghana's image. We have an interest in preventing this from happening but also those who want to hurt us also in terms of their calculating will know coming to Ghana and trying to do something here will also embellish their own image.”

Islamic State was focused on attacking European and French targets on French soil, while Al-Qaeda was focused on former French colonies.

“I think it is based on the operational capabilities of both organisations and where each of them think they can get into and strike,” Dr Aning said.

He said expatriates, particularly Caucasians had been targeted in the West Africa attacks.

In both Mali and Burkina Faso hotels were targeted, while in Côte d’Ivoire a beach resort was targeted by gun men.

“I think people with a Caucasian background are now more at risk, but I do think if any such thing was to happen in Ghana where Caucasians frequent will not the target, I think the target will be the Ghanaian elite where they gather and where their children go to school.”

And, like no country is safe from a terror attack, Dr Aning notes no democracy is safe from a coup attempt “if and when those who govern that democracy don't play by the rule of law," he said, referring to Friday's attempted coup in Turkey which has left 232 dead and nearly 20,000 members of the police, civil service, judiciary and army detained or suspended since Friday night.

This crackdown and the calls to reinstate the death penalty for those plotters has drawn concern from Western allies who said Ankara must uphold the rule of law in the country - it is a NATO member, and Washington's most powerful Muslim ally.

There has been widespread concern that President Tayyip Erdogan was using the opportunity to consolidate his power and further a process of silencing dissent.

Dr Aning said a leader or state can be “extremely powerful” but if that state or leader does not play by the rule of law, people will be alienated, and “some of them would want to take the law into their own hands.”

It was important the response to an attempted coup was met within the rule of law.

“The government must simply not go out there and say I' will arrest anyone who I suspect to be my enemy'. I think already too many enemies of that regime have been arrested, and that is why there is concern in Europe and America that this must not be used as trigger to oppress people and undermine the democratic credentials of Turkey.”