Here are Nate Silver's Final Four picks

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March 13, 2017 4:03 PM

This year's tournament does not have a heavy favorite; Villanova has a 15% chance to win it all, followed by Gonzaga at 14%.

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The Villanova Wildcats are a slight favorite to win the NCAA men's basketball tournament, according to Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model.

This year's tournament appears to be wide open. Two years ago, undefeated Kentucky entered the tournament with a 41% chance to win it all. Last year, Kansas had a nearly one-in-five shot to win it all, at 19.1%. This year, no team is above 15%, and seven teams have at least a 5% shot to cut down the nets in Glendale, Arizona.

If we look at chances to reach the Final Four, things are a little different. Gonzaga is the team most likely to win its region, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver's model also has one minor upset, with Kentucky a slight favorite over North Carolina to win the South regional.

Here are the favorites to make the Final Four, according to Silver's model:

Gonzaga (No. 1 seed, West region) — 41% chance to make Final Four
Villanova (No. 1, East) — 40% chance
Kansas (No. 1, Midwest) — 38% chance
Kentucky (No. 2, South) — 30% chance

Silver's model evaluates each team using eight systems: six computer models and two human-generated ratings. Each team's overall rating is adjusted for injuries and travel distance during the tournament.

Meanwhile, Ken Pomeroy, a highly respected and statistics-centric college-basketball analyst, has Gonzaga as the top-rated team, followed by Villanova, North Carolina, and Louisville as the best teams in each of the other regions.

Here's the bracket, from CBS. (Here's a printable bracket.)

Here are the Vegas odds to win it all. Duke is a slight betting favorite over UNC.